How Long Will the Bear Market Last? Here's What History Shows

Few stock market corrections last longer than a year, and few bear markets extend for more than two years.

The current sell-off is arguably most similar to the market decline in the early 80s, which lasted for 622 days.

Every market decline is different, but there are important ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか lessons investors can learn from historical downturns.

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The ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか past gives reason for optimism about the future.

If you've ever been on a road trip with kids, you've probably heard the inevitable question: Are we there yet? Even adults like to know how far away they are from their destination.

This same sentiment is true with the current stock market pullback. Most investors know that stocks ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか will bounce back sooner or later. And they'd love to know how far into the future the rebound will happen.

How long will this bear market last? Unfortunately, there's no clear answer. However, we can gain some perspective by looking at historical market downturns.

A person with a concerned expression looking at a computer monitor.

Image source: Getty Images.

Market declines of the past

Significant declines aren't unusual for the S&P 500. They happen regularly at varying levels of intensity.

The worst type of market decline is a bear market, which is defined as a period where the market plunge by 20% or more from the most recent high. Stock market corrections are more common. They occur ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか when stocks sink at least 10% (but less than 20%).

Bear markets tend to last longer than corrections do. The longest bear market for the S&P 500 occurred during the Great Depression and lasted 2.8 years. Since the 1950s, the longest bear market was in the early ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか 2000s when the dot.com bubble burst. It lastest 2.1 years.

^SPX Chart

The S&P 500 slipped into bear market territory on Friday -- but just barely (no pun intended). It could quickly revert back to a ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか correction. Most corrections don't result in full-blown bear markets. The ones ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか that don't sometimes last only a few weeks. Others can go on for months. However, corrections only rarely last for more than a ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか year.

The closest cousin

No market correction is exactly alike. However, they sometimes are similar in several respects.

The current S&P 500 sell-off appears to ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか be primarily due to two related factors. Inflation is soaring, driven by ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか coronavirus-related supply chain issues and high fuel prices resulting in part from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Interest rates are also rising as the Federal Reserve attempts to keep inflation under control.

These aren't the same underlying issues that were present during the lengthy bear market in ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか the early 2000s. Probably the most significant common denominator between the current sell-off and the steep decline back then is that both followed long roaring bull markets.

Arguably the closest cousin to today's S&P 500 decline is the bear market that began in late 1980. It lasted for 622 days, ending in August 1982. Led by Paul Volcker, the Federal Reserve cranked up interest rates relentlessly to fight skyrocketing inflation. The current chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, recently made a Volcker-like commitment to continue raising interest rates until inflation levels subside.

Lessons from history

It's possible that the S&P 500 will enter a bear market that extends into late 2023 based on what's happened in the past. However, some economists think that inflation will ease downward this year.

If so, the Fed isn't likely to raise interest rates anywhere close to the levels seen during the early '80s bear market. That could mean that this bear market could be a relatively short one that ends later this year.

Regardless of how long the current stock market sell-off lasts, there are clear lessons that investors can learn from history. Most importantly, even steep downturns are only temporary. Selling all your stocks is usually ill-advised because you could miss the inevitable rebound.

Actually, the smartest strategy for market downturns based on what has happened in the past is to buy solid stocks and index funds as they're falling. Doing so should set you up for even greater long-term returns.

Perhaps the best answer to the question of when the stock market sell-off will end is the same one you've probably told your kids on road trips: "We're not there yet, but we're ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか getting closer."

お金にまつわるお悩みなら教えて! お金の先生



















時間がたてばたつほど上がるに決まってます。 ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか




So the next time we have a problem, it’s ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか got to be a very very serious. It’s got to be the worst in my lifetime.

It certainly has to be in the next ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか 3 years.

And I’ve read enough history to know it’s going to happen again no matter what happens.

In the US, what do I see in 2021? That’s another sign that happens.

I will say it, the main lesson in history is most people do not learn the ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか lesson of history.

We had a president of America recently that did ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか not know history. He thought trade wars were good. And even if somebody taught him history, he thought he was smarter than history.


The first thing and I won’t repeat, don’t invest in anything unless you yourself know a lot about.

So that’s the first and most important lesson if you want to survive.

You know that whenever there’s a catastrophe, there’s always an opportunity.

質問:デジタル暗号通貨についてどう思われますか? ブリッジウォーター・アソシエイツの創業者であるレイ・ダリオは、少し前に、今は「現金はゴミ」であり、人々はより多くのインフレを経験するだろうと語っていました。最終的に人々は、株、金、ビットコイン、不動産など「ほとんど何でもあり」を選ぶようになる。 彼自身もいくつかのビットコインを保有していますが、どのように考えていますか?

They don’t like to lose the monopoly on money. You obviously see India and some countries starting ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか to say, wait a minute. Wait a minute. We don’t like this.

I would like for that to be the case but governments likes control、like power、like monopoly.



Unfortunately, and yes your insight about America, America always thinks everybody has to do it their way.

But as you have ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか rightly pointed out, this particular point in history, America seems to insist ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか that they be on top and everybody has to do things the American way.

We can fight and we all suffer. We can work together and we can all prosper.

But you know, history is very informative.

If I were China, I would say, okay go ahead. We know that what you’re doing is going to hurt you more than it’s going to hurt us. Don’t do it. We will just wait. We’ll ロジャーズは弱気相場ばかり探すのか prosper in the end.

I’m convinced that China will be the most historic country in the 21st. Certainly becoming it it’s not already the most important country in the 21st century and that’s not going to stop.

アメリカで中国人と会った時に「Hello, good morning, good afternoon, or have good day」と言っていが、本来、中国人の一般的な挨拶は、吃饭了吗(ご飯は食べましたか?)であった。

China is going to be the most important country in the 21st century. But there’s nothing anybody can do about it. It’s happening and it’s going to continue.


[月額660円(税込) 毎週月曜日(年末年始を除く)]

なぜアイフルグループのソーシャルレンディングが人気?新商品「不動産担保ローンファンド」で攻勢 (PR:AGクラウドファンディング)

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